Is this article being printed as a full screen because it highlights Lourdes Flores party? They won half the seats of the two leaders. This isn't meaningful. It's likely she will be out as leader entirely and never run in another election when the next 40,000 votes are counted. Her political career is over, a 2 time loser not getting out of the first round. Why aren't they printing articles about her retirement party?

The congressional results illustrated in this graphic seem wildly wrong to me. They are showing UN with 11 seats in Lima, which seems really optimistic to me (I'm guessing 9 but 10 is just barely possible). They're also showing 2 seats in La Libertad and one in Moquegua, both of which would require an enormous change to the results currently being shown (as in they'd have to increase their percentage by more than a third). On the other hand, they've missed several districts where they seem to be winning seats. In all, I'm estimating that they will win 18 seats: 9 in Lima and one each in Ancash, Arequipa, Cajamarca, Callao, Ica, Junin, La Libertad, Lambayeque and Piura.

So the total is about right, but the urban bias is less than what is shown.

There are two reasons Apra is doing so much better. First, UN's congressional vote is only about 60% of its presidential vote. By contrast, Apra's congressional vote is more than 80% of its presidential vote. (UPP's congressional vote is about 66% of it's presidential vote.)

Second, UN is largely urban; not only are Lima voters underrepresented in Congress, but also smaller parties are discriminated against in the allocation of seats in small districts (i.e. every distrct other then Lima, basically.)

Now, in order for a third-place party to win a seat in a district, you need to have at least three seats, but one-third of the districts only have one or two seats. And UN is running third (or worse) in 20 of the 25 districts. They are first in Lima and second in Callao, Arequipa, Cajamarca, and La Libertad.

The vote splitting is an interesting phenomenon. Which congressional list did 40% of Lourdes' supporters vote for? And for that matters, which list did 33% of Humala's supporters vote for? Two obvious possibilities exist: Peru Posible, which has about 4% of the congressional vote (no presidential candidate) and AF, which has 13% of the congressional vote, particularly concentrated in Lima, where they are a fairly close second.

Oops, correction. UN came third in La Libertad, too. AF came second. More grist for the vote-splitting theory. However, the important thing about La Libertad is that Apra got almost half of the votes (which, because of the way the D'Hondt formula discriminates against minor parties, translates into five out of seven seats).

So Rici, What is going to happen to UN and who is the most likely leader after Flores?

Max:
UN is a coalition, and it doesn't have a "leader"; it has a presidential candidate. Its major members are the PPC (Popular Christian Party), which is a fairly long-standing right-wing party (and of which Flores is a member), and Solidaridad Nacional, which was formed by Luis Casteñeda Lossio, now the popular mayor of Lima. Casteñeda previously ran for president, unsuccessfully, and may well still have presidential ambitions.

The transition from mayor of Lima to president of the Republic has historically been difficult; many have tried without success.

The previous mayor of Lima, Alberto Andrade, who is also a former PPC member who formed his own party, Somos Perú, also ran for the presidency in 2000. Somos Perú joined the Centre Front coalicion for this election, and Andrade won a seat in congress. SP has said that it does not regard the FC coalition as a permanent marriage, and that it will run on its own in the upcoming municipal elections (in November). Andrade may also still have presidential ambitions but it's hard to see him working with the PPC.

SN will also be looking to increase its base in the municipal elections, and it appears that it could be better off with its own identity, trying to capitalize on Casteñeda's popularity. Apra has traditionally done reasonably well in municipal elections, but will face a challenge from UPP (or possibly from the Nationalist Party itself).

Peruvian political parties are in a phase of consolidation; there is a general feeling (which I strongly agree with) that political parties need to become more widely-based, more responsible, and generally speaking more institutionalized. The recently-passed law of political parties, and the modifications to the electoral act, were both attempts to create some pressure on political parties to consolidate. In particular, there is some incentive to create parties capable of running at all three levels of government.

So the parties who make up the UN will have to decide whether to maintain the coalition for the upcoming municipal (and later on, regional) elections.

That's not really an answer to your question. I don't think it's possible to answer right now; there are just too many variables.